Directional accuracy: the final price is above the starting reference for a bullish bias, or below it for a bearish bias. Flat results are not hits.
Favorable movement: the furthest price move in the bias direction exceeds the furthest move against it during the window. This does not imply that an entry was available or profitable.
Entry year
Swing
Short-term
202468.9% n=4562.9% n=167
202565.0% n=20657.5% n=113
2026 (partial)58.9% n=16362.8% n=113
Historical research windows from January 2024 through Sep 20, 2026, not audited live trade returns. History has been reused in research and is not a pristine holdout. Overlapping windows and related markets are correlated. Neither model maintains 60% in every year.
Swing excursions use M5-derived historical extremes; Short-term uses its 12 complete H1 bars. Horizons count observed bars, not fixed calendar durations. Incomplete windows are excluded. OANDA mid prices exclude execution costs and are not executable broker quotes.